Wealthion, Released on 8/31/23
For Part 2 of this interview, CLICK HERE
There’s a lot of disagreement right now about where the markets are headed. Much of Wall Street is hoping the rally from the first half of the year will re-ignite, and there’s a fair amount of technical analysis suggesting it very well may. But more investors are starting to worry about the impact of today’s bond yields. Suddenly, talk is everywhere about how high they are and fear is growing that they may still rise materially higher. And of course, fundamental analysts have been warning for quarters now that the lag effect from central banks’ historically aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet reduction will be arriving in force soon — sure to drag economic growth AND financial asset prices downwards. So what’s most likely to happen from here? We’re fortunate to be joined by analyst Stephanie Pomboy today. She’s CEO of MacroMavens and at the top of the list of most popular experts with the Wealthion’s audience.
0:00 The lag effect of rate hikes.
3:45 Recession on the way.
10:00 The state of the consumer.
16:30 How the fed could pivot to quantitative easing.
20:39 How financial assets underperform once the fed pivots.
24:57 How the deficit will compromise economic growth going forward.
32:05 Why was it so hard to hire people during the pandemic?
38:20 Corporate bankruptcies and employment.
44:13 Default rates for speculative grade debt.
49:28 The fed forced people to go further out on the risk curve.
57:34 Zoltan Posner and resource producers.
Stephanie Pomboy is an economist and founder of the economic research firm MacroMavens. Before launching her firm, Pomboy worked as a managing director at an independent economic research firm ISI Group from 1991 to 2002. She provided timely financial insight and analysis to the country’s most sophisticated and largest institutions. Then, she began her career at Cyrus J. Lawrence LLC’s investment management company after earning a bachelor’s degree in 1990. Pomboy spent over a decade working with Ed Hyman and Nancy Lazar at ISI Group and Cyrus J. Lawrence LLC. In addition, Pomboy hosts a joint podcast called The Super Terrific Happy Hour with Grant Williams of Things That Make You Go Hmmm… newsletter.
Adam Taggart is the Founder of Wealthion. He is also Co-Founder and former President of Peak Prosperity. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris Martenson (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site, ChrisMartenson.com), he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (mySimon.com, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.