David Rosenberg: A Recession Is Coming In The Next 6 Months

Blockworks Macro, Released on 8/31/23

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in!

00:00 Introduction
00:37 The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year
09:27 Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative
20:20 What Causes A Recession?
24:56 How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates?
35:34 We Haven’t Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet
42:02 The Politics Of Deficit Spending
47:01 There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market
59:37 How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be?
01:06:56 Fitch’s AAA Downgrade
01:09:41 The Fed Has Overtightened
01:14:12 The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment
01:16:00 Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak?

David Rosenberg is the chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates, an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to starting his firm, he was Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist & strategist. Mr. Rosenberg was also chief North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto, he was a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia. Mr. Rosenberg previously ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for seven straight years, was on the US Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for four years, and was ranked second overall in the 2008 survey.

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