Tavi Costa: Bad Times Ahead for Stocks, History Shows Something ‘Big’ Is About to Drop

Stansberry Research, Released on 3/27/23

“There a lot of themes in the global macro world right now that are firming up for precious metals,” says Otavio “Tavi” Costa, portfolio manger for Crescat Capital. “We’ve really had five very bad decades for the stock market throughout history and I think we’re going to have another one here,” he tells Daniela Cambone at the 2023 Swiss Mining Institute annual conference. “There will be a ‘Great Rotation,’ basically a domino effect of things like interest rates being higher,” Costa continues. “We are very concerned about private equity markets, mega caps, and the corporate bond,” he exclaims. “A yield-curve inversion is one of the best indicators that precedes a recession,” Costa argues. “On the long side, metals and mining are where you want to be,” he continues. “Given the level of imbalances we have in the global economy, not just the U.S., it’s hard to believe we are not going to see more things unfold,” Costa says. “There’s going to be a lot of readjustments of prices of fundamentals from here,” he concludes.

00:00 Overall market sentiment
3:37 FAANG stocks
4:21 How far away are we from a recession?
6:22 The performance of silver
9:10 How can we bring investors to the mining space?
11:29 Are you concerned about the economy?

Tavi Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

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