Peak Prosperity, Released on 1/8/21

A year ago, macro strategist David Hunter predicted a massive melt-up in financial assets, to be followed by an equally tremendous market crash.

Well, he’s certainly been right so far on the melt-up prediction.

All major stock indices are trading at record highs. And valuations have never been more stretched.

Market Cap to GDP (the famed “Buffet Indicator”) has never been higher. Nor has the market’s price-to-sales ratio.

As analyst Sven Henrick puts it “everything has gone vertical”.

So, having correctly called the current melt-up, will Hunter’s prediction of a 65-80% crash in prices this year also come true?

Time will tell. But as extreme as that kind of drop may seem, history is on David’s side.

Whenever excessive debt has enabled market multiples to distort to unsustainably excessive heights — which is what’s happening now on an unprecedented level — a painful correction to clear out the bad debt and malinvestment has always occurred.

But despite his dire forecast, Hunter is more sanguine about what will follow. He predicts that those who preserve their capital through the coming crash will have the opportunity to deploy it at very advantageous terms as the next recovery begins. And like previous guests Jim Rogers and Steen Jakobsen, he sees a very bright future ahead for commodities and the companies that source, refine and deliver them to market.

Which is why now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the nature of the risks and opportunities in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate.

David Hunter is Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 20 years as a sell-side strategist with strong expertise in macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management.

Adam Taggart is the President and Co-Founder of Peak Prosperity. He wears many hats, but his basic job is to handle the business side of things so that his fellow co-founder, Chris Martenson, is free to think and write. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site, ChrisMartenson.com), he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (mySimon.com, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.

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