Steve Hanke: Shrinking Money Supply = Recession And Sub-2% Inflation By End Of Year

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money, Released on 3/31/24

When I interviewed today’s guest expert back in August of 2021, when inflation was 5%, he made the bold prediction that the CPI would eventually hit 9%, a prediction that seemed unthinkable at the time — but it indeed proved true less than a year later. He then called for inflation to moderate substantially, which it also then did. Where does he see inflation headed from here? To find out, as well as hear his latest outlook on the economy, recession risk, social stability and the markets, we welcome back Steve Hanke professor, of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland

0:00 – Macro & Market Overview
5:05 – Loss Of Currency Purchasing Power
18:34 – Money Supply Predicts Recession & Lower Inflation
26:25 – The 10-year UST Looks Attractive
29:00 – Future Monetary & Fiscal Policy
40:00 – The Lag Effect WILL Happen
52:18 – How Bad Is The US Debt Burden?
57:15 – Steve Conclusions
1:00:47 – New Harbor week-in-review

Steve Hanke is an American applied economist at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland. He is also a senior fellow and director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington, DC, and co-director of the Johns Hopkins University’s Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise in Baltimore, Maryland. Hanke is known for his work as a currency reformer in emerging-market countries. He was a senior economist with President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1981 to 1982, and has served as an adviser to heads of state in countries throughout Asia, South America, Europe, and the Middle East. He is also known for his work on currency boards, dollarization, hyperinflation, water pricing and demand, benefit-cost analysis, privatization, and other topics in applied economics. Hanke has written extensively as a columnist for Forbes magazine and other publications. He is also a currency and commodity trader.

Adam Taggart is the Founder of  Thoughtful Money. He is also Co-Founder and former President of Peak Prosperity. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris Martenson (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site,, he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.

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