Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money, Released on 9/10/25

The cost of capital is rising. Inflation may be more present in future years, especially as we re-shore manufacturing. And as we re-shore it, we are also re-introducing our economy’s exposure to the natural business cycle — something we’d largely been able to divorce our exposure to by pushing it onto other countries during the era of Globalization. In short: the entire framework we’ve been accustomed to investing in is coming to an end, warns macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy. What will the likeliest implications be? Watch this video to find out.

0:00 – Jobs market revisions: 911,000–919,000 fewer jobs than expected, signaling weakness
3:02 – Payrolls at 22,000 vs. 75,000 expected, unemployment at 4.3%, highest in years
4:40 – Stephanie’s analysis: Jobs data overstated, markets ignore economic weakness
6:47 – Markets treat revisions as a non-event, expect Fed rate cuts to offset
8:52 – Stock market overvalued relative to economic indicators, risks repricing
10:08 – Arguments for economic pickup: Tax cuts, deregulation, tariff income
12:04 – Consumer spending weak, high debt costs, and job market slowdown threaten
14:44 – Unemployment rate (4.3%) vs. Fed funds rate: Historical recession patterns
17:27 – Reshoring manufacturing: Long-term process, not immediate economic boost
19:01 – Quits rate collapse signals job insecurity despite soaring asset prices
21:10 – Great Resignation shifting to job retention, boomers may unretire
23:32 – Unemployment rate understates true weakness, millions outside labor force
24:51 – Reshoring manufacturing: Benefits and challenges, higher costs, wages
27:49 – End of globalization: Higher production costs, economic demand for liquidity
30:46 – Financial markets face volatility, reimporting business cycle
33:00 – Framework shift: Higher inflation, costlier capital reshape investing
35:31 – Adam’s outlook: Short-term bearish, medium-term bullish, long-term bearish
37:45 – Policy responses: Aggressive stimulus likely, but deficits persist
39:27 – Gold as hedge against global fiat debasement, developed world debt issues
41:34 – FOMC expectations: 25–50 bps cut, markets expect dovish tone
44:55 – Yield curve control likely if long rates resist Fed cuts
46:24 – Bond yields: Potential short-lived rally, then upward pressure from deficits
48:36 – Gold outlook: Strong gains, but expect sell-the-news correction
51:30 – Hedging gold positions with inverse ETFs to manage pullback risk
53:39 – Gold demand driven by non-Western investors, U.S. demand lags
58:44 – Corporate credit risks: $1 trillion debt due, extend-and-pretend fading
1:01:17 – Housing market pressures: High costs, job losses could trigger bust
1:02:37 – Potential “parade of horribles”: Recession, market correction, housing bust
1:04:05 – Where to follow Stephanie: macromavens.com, @SPomboy on Twitter

Stephanie Pomboy is an economist and founder of the economic research firm MacroMavens. Before launching her firm, Pomboy worked as a managing director at an independent economic research firm ISI Group from 1991 to 2002. She provided timely financial insight and analysis to the country’s most sophisticated and largest institutions. Then, she began her career at Cyrus J. Lawrence LLC’s investment management company after earning a bachelor’s degree in 1990. Pomboy spent over a decade working with Ed Hyman and Nancy Lazar at ISI Group and Cyrus J. Lawrence LLC. In addition, Pomboy hosts a joint podcast called The Super Terrific Happy Hour with Grant Williams of Things That Make You Go Hmmm… newsletter.

Adam Taggart is the Founder of Thoughtful Money. He is also Co-Founder and former President of Peak Prosperity. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris Martenson (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site, ChrisMartenson.com), he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (mySimon.com, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.

  Adam Taggart, economy, inflation, investing, jobs, Stephanie Pomboy