Recession ‘Delayed Not Derailed’ As Economy Approaches ‘Tipping Point’ – David Rosenberg

Kitco News, Released on 6/18/24

Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, interviews economist David Rosenberg to unpack the latest economic indicators and their implications. Rosenberg highlights the delayed but not derailed approach of a looming recession, emphasizing that current economic signals suggest a tipping point similar to past cycles. He critiques the Federal Reserve’s policy responses and provides a deep dive into the macroeconomic factors influencing today’s economy. Rosenberg’s analysis draws on recent data indicating slowing consumer spending and the impact of fiscal policies, suggesting that the U.S. may be on the brink of a recession, challenging the Federal Reserve’s optimistic outlook.

00:00 – Introduction
02:30 – Economic Health and Forecast Accuracy
05:00 – Fiscal Stimulus and Consumer Spending
08:00 – Anticipating the Consumer Recession
11:00 – Federal Reserve’s Policy and its Impact
14:00 – Retail Sales and Economic Indicators
18:00 – Global Economic Comparisons
21:00 – Federal Reserve’s Communication Strategy
24:00 – Political Impacts on Economic Perception
28:00 – Closing Thoughts and Future Economic Outlook

David Rosenberg is the chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates, an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to starting his firm, he was Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist & strategist. Mr. Rosenberg was also chief North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto, he was a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia. Mr. Rosenberg previously ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for seven straight years, was on the US Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for four years, and was ranked second overall in the 2008 survey.

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