Peter McCormack, Released on 3/4/26

Governments aren’t going to pay this debt down in real terms. More likely, they pay it back in weaker money. Luke Gromen argues we’re already deep into a sovereign debt cycle – and that AI could speed up the moment it really starts to crack. In this interview we discuss how the system works: leverage, entitlements, interest costs, bond markets – and what happens when deflation hits an economy that depends on inflation to stay upright.

00:00 – Debt Reality
01:57 – Math vs Politics
06:26 – Already In It
08:51 – Japan Warning
14:38 – Acute Phase Risk
15:32 – What To Do
21:33 – End Of The Cycle
34:13 – AI Disruption
40:20 – 2007 Parallel
49:07 – UBI & Politics
58:02 – Sovereign Insolvency
1:08:26 – Meaning & Collapse

Luke Gromen is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003. Luke provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives and is the founder of The Forest For The Trees, LLC, a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals.

  financial crash, investing, luke gromen, us debt