Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money, Released on 6/1/25

It’s an especially confusing time for investors. On one hand, the US economy is showing signs of slowing, with a negative growth for Q1 GDP, and mounting evidence that many corporations and consumer households are feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs. On the other hand, FOMO Is returning to the stock market as corporate earnings look solid, tariffs tensions ease somewhat, and optimism over the longer term likely positive impact the Trump Administration’s business-friendly policies will  have on the economy. So, which is more warranted here: optimism or pessimism? For perspective, we have the great fortune today to sit down with one of the greatest living economists, Lacy Hunt, former senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and current Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company. Lacy sees Wall Street as dangerously deluded here. In his eyes, the economy is “far worse” than markets are currently expecting. Buckle up.

0:00 – Deteriorating hard data
5:22 – Inventory surge and corporate profits.
10:24 – Rising unemployment claims
14:10 – Big Beautiful Bill’s limited impact
22:02 – Debt overhang and economic drag
27:11 – Long-term policy optimism
31:30 – Money supply’s critical role
37:03 – Deflation over inflation concerns
46:17 – Federal Reserve’s delayed action
48:04 – Systemic risks and Minsky moment
53:00 – Neil Ferguson’s empire insights
54:03 – Market outlook and bond value
1:02:17 – Policy reform for debt control
1:06:59 – Defining a rich life
1:13:10 – Closing and viewer guidance

Lacy Harris Hunt is an economist and Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO). He is Vice-Chairman of HIMCO’s strategic investment policy committee and also Chief Economist for the Wasatch Hoisington Treasury Bond Fund. He has authored two books, A Time to Be Rich and Dynamics of Forecasting: Financial Cycles, Theory and Techniques, and has had articles published in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Journal of Finance, the Financial Analysts Journal, the Journal of Portfolio Management and other locations. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for “outstanding contributions in the field of business economics.”

Adam Taggart is the Founder of  Thoughtful Money. He is also Co-Founder and former President of Peak Prosperity. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris Martenson (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site, ChrisMartenson.com), he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (mySimon.com, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.

  economy, Lacy Hunt, market correction, recession