Excess Returns, Released on 4/13/26

This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect. We explore how today’s environment compares to past inflationary periods, the hidden risks in credit markets and public debt, and what history teaches us about AI investment booms, oil shocks, and monetary disruption. Grant also discusses trust in financial systems, the role of gold, and why markets are always harder in real time than they appear in hindsight.

(Timestamps are below the video)

00:00 Intro and Jim Grant on the true causes of inflation
04:04 Why war drives sustained inflation and current geopolitical risks
08:00 Historical perspective on inflation before the 1970s
12:00 Oil shocks, Volcker, and lessons from past inflation cycles
16:00 Why inflation never reverses and purchasing power declines
20:00 Trust in markets and the foundation of credit systems
24:00 Private credit risks and the modern credit cycle
28:00 Public debt, Treasury markets, and fiscal sustainability concerns
32:00 Treasury auctions, yields, and early warning signs in bonds
35:25 AI capex boom and lessons from past technological bubbles
38:17 Air conditioning, internet bubbles, and delayed economic payoffs
40:00 The Fed, Treasury, and hidden financial interdependence
44:14 Asset allocation, gold, and monetary disruption
48:44 The dollar’s strength and global dominance
53:41 Why investing is always difficult in real time
59:00 Advice on markets, newsletters, and enduring uncertainty

James “Jim” Grant is an American writer and publisher and the founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of the financial markets. He is the author , most recently, of The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself. Grant’s television appearances include “60 Minutes,” “The Charlie Rose Show,” Bloomberg TV, CNBC and other well-known financial news sources. His journalism has appeared in a variety of periodicals, including the “Financial Times”, “The Wall Street Journal” and “Foreign Affairs.”

  economy, inflation, investing, iran, markets, middle-east, war