Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money, Released on 10/21/25

Today’s guest suggests that for much of the past three years, the economy & financial markets have been boosted by a “sugar high” cocktail including prodigous fiscal stimulus from the government, massive AI capex outlays from the private sector, a wave of incremental consumer spending from waves of millions of illegal immigrants. But now he warns the sugar high is behind us. If true, what will the repercussion be? To find out, we’re fortunate to welcome to the program for the first time Edward Dowd, founder of macroeconomic consulting & research firm Phinance Technologies.

0:00 – Crossroads in Capital Markets
2:18 – Economy vs. Markets: Complete Disconnect & Real-World Trouble
2:25 – Jobs Data Fraud: Non-Farm Payrolls Revised Down ~1M
3:38 – QCEW Discovery: 7-Sigma Disparity Signals Incompetence or Fraud
6:02 – Immigration Stimulus: $500B-$1.5T Propped Up 2023-24 Economy
7:41 – Real Estate Floor Cracks: Rentals & Immigration Demand Reverses
8:18 – Credit Signals: Bonds Rally, High Yield Breaks, Regionals Roll Over
9:35 – Auto Sector Implosions: Subprime Lenders & Dealers Bankrupt
10:20 – Housing Indicators: Record Gap in Starts vs. Sales, Inventory Surges
11:09 – Multi-Tenant Overbuild: 70s-Level Boom for Illegal Immigration Now Sours
11:46 – Recap: Artificial Juicing Ends, Headwinds Build
13:38 – Valuation Concerns: Forward 10-Year Returns at Zero (Worse Since Feb)
15:07 – Toxic Mix: Real Estate, Trade Wars, Credit & Dotcom-Like AI Burst
16:29 – AI Reality Check: Declining Corporate Rollouts, Hallucination Errors
17:38 – Dotcom Parallels: Stranded Infrastructure, Capex-Revenue Mismatch
20:26 – Bitcoin vs. AI: No Pricing Mechanism, Insiders Selling Hand-Over-Fist
21:23 – Timing the Bust: Early? Just Like 1997 Dotcom Bears
22:04 – 1998-99 Backdrop: Demographics, Y2K, Globalization vs. Today’s Mess
23:06 – Fed Pivot: Behind the Curve, Panic Cuts Incoming
24:05 – Ending Moves: Fantastical AI Press Releases (e.g., Oracle +30% on Hype)
25:24 – Bond Market Sniffs Recession: Yields Creep Lower on Deflation Fears
26:02 – Dollar Bullish: Debasement Trade Over, 4-Year Cycle Low in Sept
27:51 – Disinflation Ahead: Tariffs Deflationary, Not Inflationary
28:45 – China Woes: GDP 60% of US, Zero Growth Post-COVID, Exports Surge
31:14 – Global Liquidity Crunch: EMs (Argentina, S. Korea) Beg for Dollars
32:05 – Oil Canary: Down to $30, Signals China & Global Demand Collapse
32:53 – Oil Investment: Buy at $30-37 for Next Boom Cycle
33:57 – No Systemic Crisis Yet: 50% Stock Drawdown Possible, Then Flip Positive
35:48 – China’s Crossroads: Needs Consumer Shift, Fears Own People Most
37:18 – Demographics Horror: Echo Boom by 2032, Then Decades of Despair
38:10 – Gold Outlook: Consolidates, Then to $10K by 2030; Tier 1 Capital Boost
41:32 – Recession Odds: 80-90% for 2026 (Q4 2025 Start?)
42:15 – Unemployment Spike: North of 5% by Next Year
43:38 – Fed Cuts: 50bps Next, Possible 100bps Panic on Credit Blowup
45:07 – Rate Cutting Mode: Like 2000 & 2007, Gravity Wins Despite Cuts
45:25 – Private Credit Risk: Opaque $1.5T Market, Fast Feedback Loops
48:36 – Investing Approach: De-lever, Raise Cash (Dry Powder for Lows)
50:12 – T-Bills Safe Haven: 3.9% Paid to Wait (Buffett Owns 5%)
51:48 – Societal Bifurcation: K-Shaped Economy Fuels Global Populism

Edward Dowd is currently a Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm. He is also author of the book “Cause Unknown”: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022 & 2023. Edward has worked on Wall Street most of his career, spanning both credit markets and equity markets. Some of the firms he worked for include HSBC, Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette and Independence Investments. Most notably, he worked at Blackrock as a portfolio manager where he managed a $14 billion Growth equity portfolio for ten years. After BlackRock, he founded OceanSquare Asset Management with two former BlackRock colleagues.

Adam Taggart is the Founder of  Thoughtful Money. He is also Co-Founder and former President of Peak Prosperity. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris Martenson (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site, ChrisMartenson.com), he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (mySimon.com, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.

  ed dowd, inflation, market correction, recession