David Rosenberg: Are We Still Heading for a Recession?

Real Vision, Released on 7/3/24

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he’s spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th.

01:01 – Introduction of David Rosenberg
01:37 – David’s perspective on the current economy
02:18 – Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook
03:33 – Recession pressures and the business cycle
04:11 – Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy
05:25 – Credit card debt and delinquency rates
06:41 – Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances
07:53 – The role of excess savings and stimulus checks
08:27 – San Francisco Fed report on excess savings
09:02 – Consumer revolt against high prices
10:06 – Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed’s statements
11:23 – Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals
12:34 – Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions
13:37 – Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors
14:13 – GDP growth and economic activity slowing down
15:17 – Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth
16:26 – Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation
18:11 – Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts
19:20 – Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains
21:04 – Labor force participation and its impact on the economy
22:15 – Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand
23:26 – Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy
24:34 – Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports
25:40 – Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession
26:16 – Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages
27:23 – Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation
28:43 – Capacity growth in the industrial sector
29:18 – Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed’s target
30:26 – Implications for asset prices and the stock market
31:39 – Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks
33:33 – Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior
35:08 – Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation
36:50 – Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare
38:57 – Trading down and frugality trends among consumers
40:14 – Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities
41:37 – Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs
43:17 – The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment
44:56 – Impact of passive indexation on market distortions
46:41 – Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels
48:02 – Potential market corrections and investor psychology
50:13 – Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing
51:57 – Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing
52:36 – Final thoughts on the current market cycle
53:47 – Importance of historical context in investing decisions
54:33 – Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior
55:52 – Recommendations for protective strategies in investing

David Rosenberg is the chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates, an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to starting his firm, he was Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist & strategist. Mr. Rosenberg was also chief North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto, he was a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia. Mr. Rosenberg previously ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for seven straight years, was on the US Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for four years, and was ranked second overall in the 2008 survey.

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