Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money, Released on 10/26/25

It’s easy to feel confused these days. With the stock market at all-time highs, some analysts predict this bull market has a lot longer to run as the business-friendly policies of the new Administration start adding tailwinds to the economy. Others see economic growth as imbalanced, at best, and worry that overall the trend for 2026 is downwards, risking recession and a material market correction. So, which is it? For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David concludes the market is in a major price bubble not unlike the DotCom era, and advises investors to build/maintain liquidity within (at least) part of their portfolio in order to weather the bubble’s bursting as well as to have dry powder to deploy at attractive valuations when it does.

0:00 – Economy Flatlining: Soft Data Shows Stagnation, Not Health
2:15 – Growth Consensus vs. Reality: Atlanta Fed 3.9% vs. Surveys Near Zero
5:37 – Beige Book Insights: Only 18% of Economy Expanding—Lowest Since 2020
8:02 – AI Boom Camouflage: CapEx Drives 18% Growth, Rest Stagnates
8:49 – Labor Market Sputter: ADP Negative, Revisions Reveal Weakness
10:02 – Housing Deflation: Case-Shiller Negative 5 Months—Never Ends Well
12:11 – Manufacturing Slump: ISM Below 50 Despite AI Tailwinds
12:58 – K-Shaped Trap: AI Concentration Masks Broader Weakness
15:50 – AI Overcapacity: Late 1990s Parallels—Spending Peaks Loom
19:09 – Bubble Metrics: CAPE at 40, 2SD Event—Second Largest on Record
22:25 – Tech Bubble Echo: Microsoft/Cisco Crashed 60-80% in Mild Recession
28:29 – Credit Trigger: Tight Spreads Widen—Bubble Burst Catalyst
29:01 – Fiscal Peak 2026: Big Beautiful Bill Adds Just 50bps—Then Fades
30:14 – Trade/Immigration Headwinds: China Tariffs, Labor Supply Constrains
31:09 – Bond Market Canary: Yields Below Fed Funds Signal Risk-Off
33:08 – Wealth Effect Mirage: Savings Rate Dive Masks Income Decline
34:54 – Sentiment Divergence: Real Economy Fears vs. Stock Bullishness
52:27 – Inequality Extremes: Reagan Tax Cuts Sparked K-Shape—Now Unstable
1:03:09 – Strategy: Sell Calls, Rotate Defensive—Bonds for 10% Return

David Rosenberg is the chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates, an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to starting his firm, he was Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist & strategist. Mr. Rosenberg was also chief North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto, he was a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia. Mr. Rosenberg previously ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for seven straight years, was on the US Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for four years, and was ranked second overall in the 2008 survey.

Adam Taggart is the Founder of  Thoughtful Money. He is also Co-Founder and former President of Peak Prosperity. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris Martenson (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site, ChrisMartenson.com), he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (mySimon.com, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.

  bear market, david rosenberg, economy, investing, market correction, stocks