Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money, Released on 5/12/26

How much of a threat to the economy is the oil price shock, and shortages of other key commodities, caused by the US-Iran war? What’s likeliest to happen if the war wraps up soon? Or, if it escalates from here? And what impact is this all likely to have on the financial markets, which are back trading at all-time highs? To find out, we’re fortunate to welcome back to the program analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital.

0:00 – How Big a Threat Is the US-Iran War to the Economy?
1:46 – Pre-War Economic Momentum: Deficits, AI Capex & Tax Refunds
2:53 – Oil Price Shock & Impact on Lower-Income Consumers
3:39 – Why the Stock Market Is at All-Time Highs Despite the War
4:16 – The “Giant Mindless Robot” – Passive Investing Explained
5:44 – Why Fighting the Passive Bid Is Pointless
6:40 – How the Market Recovered So Quickly After the War Dip
8:32 – Why Old Market Analogies (1999, 2007) No Longer Apply
9:45 – AI Capex: The Massive Stimulus No One Is Talking About
11:49 – Using the Oil Market as a War Barometer
13:46 – Will the War End Soon or Drag On? Trump’s Real Goals
15:02 – Inflation Psychology & Why Prices Aren’t Going Back Down
16:42 – What Could Finally Break the Passive Investing Robot?
19:37 – Global Oil Supply, Strait of Hormuz & Long-Term Inflation Risks
22:01 – Is Any Inflation Actually Good? (Reshoring & Resilience)
27:22 – The National Debt Gorilla – Why We Can’t Grow Our Way Out
28:56 – When Will the Bond Market Finally Matter?
30:54 – “Hell To Pay” When the Bond Market Breaks
33:06 – Bill’s Current Portfolio Strategy & Positioning
35:28 – Idiosyncratic Investments: Companies That Don’t Need a Bull Market
36:55 – PureCycle Technologies – The Recycling Growth Story
40:14 – Glass House Brands & Cannabis Sector Catalysts
44:37 – Gold, Miners & Why Another Leg Higher Is Coming
51:45 – Why Bill Moved from Washington State to Nevada

Bill Fleckenstein is the President of Fleckenstein Capital and writes the daily Market Rap column for his website: Fleckenstein Capital. Bill has appeared at one time or another in virtually all financial media including Bloomberg, CNBC, The New York Times, MSN, Marketwatch, Barron’s and more. Bill is a highly sought after speaker, successful author of Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve and has been in the financial sector for decades.

Adam Taggart is the Founder of  Thoughtful Money. He is also Co-Founder and former President of Peak Prosperity. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris Martenson (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site, ChrisMartenson.com), he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (mySimon.com, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.

  bond market, economy, gold, investing