Natural Resource Stocks, Released on 6/9/26

Art Berman joins Andy Millette to break down why the Strait of Hormuz oil disruption is not just an oil inventory story, but a logistics and confidence crisis moving through the global energy system. Art explains why the market has adapted through bypass pipelines, inventory drawdowns, China demand reductions, and demand destruction, but argues those fixes have limits. The conversation covers why reopening Hormuz would not act like a light switch, why tanker owners, insurers, crews, production shut-ins, and refinery constraints could keep oil markets stressed long after any headline resolution. Art also challenges the idea that the United States is truly energy independent, explaining how U.S. refineries depend on specific crude qualities, especially heavy Canadian supply. The discussion moves into jet fuel, diesel, WTI, Brent, global GDP pressure, demand destruction, and why Art believes the world may not return to the 2025 oil market baseline.

00:00 Cold open, Art Berman’s oil warning
00:50 Andy welcomes Art Berman
01:25 Crisis of logistics, not inventory
02:00 The oil system adapts under pressure
03:04 Why headline oil prices may mislead
04:22 Storage withdrawals and price pressure
06:43 Limits of bypass pipelines and reserves
09:50 Reopening Hormuz is not a light switch
14:52 Production shut-ins and restart problems
17:12 Inventories, stocks, and refilling pressure
19:39 Iran’s leverage over the world economy
25:05 China, Russia, and crude inventory strategy
25:59 The myth of U.S. energy independence
28:49 Why not all oil is equal
30:41 Canada’s role in U.S. refinery supply
31:40 Short term relief versus long term danger
33:45 Demand destruction and oil prices
37:09 Why 70 dollar oil may be gone
38:16 GDP pressure and no historical precedent
39:14 A world changing event
39:51 Permanent confidence problem in Gulf oil
41:06 Where to follow Art Berman

Arthur Berman is a petroleum geologist with 40 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and currently consults for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.  He is also an associate editor of the AAPG Bulletin and was a managing editor and frequent contributor to theoildrum.com. Art worked 20 years for Amoco (now BP) and 17 years as consulting geologist. He has an M.S. (Geology) from the Colorado School of Mines and a B.A. (History) from Amherst College.

  art berman, energy, iran war, oil, oil crisis