The Julia La Roche Show, Released on 5/1/25

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 253 to discuss the economy and markets. In this episode, Ted discusses the concerning deterioration in economic indicators despite ongoing investor complacency, warning that earnings expectations are too optimistic while market multiples remain elevated. He shares his approach to maintaining significant liquidity (currently 55%) while selectively investing in value opportunities like consumer staples. Ted also explains his gold strategy, with bullion as a permanent currency hedge and miners as tradable assets. The conversation concludes with insights from his new book “Second Generation Wealth,” where he emphasizes the importance of letting children experience financial independence and adversity before introducing them to family wealth.

0:00 Introduction and welcome
0:32 Big picture macro view – deterioration and complacency
2:05 Explaining market complacency despite bearish sentiment
3:21 Liquidity and portfolio positioning
4:45 Appropriate liquidity levels by age group
7:42 Boomers’ over-allocation to stocks
8:47 Value Line Investment Survey as a market indicator
10:52 Scaling into investments during market downturns
11:55 Fully invested vs. current 55% liquid strategy
14:09 Market risks: shrinking corporate margins and multiples
16:05 Market decline without recession possibility
17:05 Recent market movement – another chance for liquidity
18:35 Q1 GDP insights and market end-of-month action
19:48 Preparing for potential market scenarios
21:26 Retail buyers and leverage in current market recovery
22:35 Current investment opportunities – consumer staples and value
24:48 Gold strategy – bullion as currency hedge vs. miners as trades
27:45 Gold’s purchasing power preservation over time
30:10 Treasury strategy – staying under two years to maintain control
31:36 US fiscal situation and future outlook
33:58 Second Generation Wealth – inheritance and teaching kids about money
36:17 Helping children develop self-esteem and independence
39:16 The importance of adversity and work ethic for children
41:37 Setting an example – treating everyone equally
44:13 Parting thoughts

Ted Oakley, the founder of Oxbow Advisors and co-founder of its predecessor firm, HPO Advisors, has over thirty-five years of experience in the investment industry. The “Oxbow Principles” and the firm’s proprietary investment strategies were developed as a result of the unique perspective Ted gained throughout his almost four-decade tenure advising high net worth investors. He’s the author of Second Generation Wealth: What Do You Want for Your Kids?

  economy, investing, stocks, Ted Oakley