The Julia La Roche Show, Released on 1/21/25

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 226 to share his perspective on the biggest challenges facing investors in 2025. Oakley discusses the potential collision between high government debt levels and rising interest rates. He expresses concerns about the new administration’s economic plans sparking inflation, and the difficulties in refinancing government debt given budget shortfalls. Oakley also shares his market outlook, highlighting risks around investor complacency, the popularity of passive investing, and the importance of maintaining liquidity. He provides insights from his decades of investing experience, including how he navigated previous turbulent markets. Oakley also previews his upcoming book on generational wealth and the lessons learned from his own upbringing.

00:00 Introduction and welcome
01:52 Macro outlook: debt vs interest rates
04:42 Inflation concerns with new administration
06:30 Challenges refinancing government debt
09:17 Markets driven by rumors over fundamentals
11:12 Government’s economic impact; recession risks
15:54 Oakley’s past performance in turbulent markets
19:11 Risks of passive investing given demographics
22:05 Market complacency and emotional investing
25:23 Finding value in stable dividend stocks
28:04 Views on Bitcoin as speculation
31:47 Fed’s interest rate dilemma
34:12 Potential paths out of US debt problem
37:29 Recession risks from spending cuts
39:16 Maintaining high liquidity given risks
42:10 Upcoming book on generational wealth
46:40 Instilling work ethic despite wealth
49:41 Closing thoughts on balance and liquidity

Ted Oakley, the founder of Oxbow Advisors and co-founder of its predecessor firm, HPO Advisors, has over thirty-five years of experience in the investment industry. The “Oxbow Principles” and the firm’s proprietary investment strategies were developed as a result of the unique perspective Ted gained throughout his almost four-decade tenure advising high net worth investors.

  economy, investing, stocks, Ted Oakley, Trump