Liberty and Finance, Released on 10/3/24

Tavi Costa discusses the current geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict and labor strikes, and their potential economic impacts, including inflation and supply chain disruptions. He emphasizes that inflation is becoming structural, driven by rising costs of living and constrained consumer spending. Costa expresses concerns about overvalued stock markets, particularly in the context of AI-driven euphoria, and discusses the potential for precious metals like gold and silver to perform well amidst market volatility. He also highlights the implications of geopolitical conflicts on long-term economic trends and concludes with thoughts on fiscal spending and its impact on growth.

0:00 Intro
1:07 Job’s strike and Iran missile attack
4:30 Inflation is here to stay
9:07 Stock market crash?
12:17 Silver update
19:26 Impact of geopolitics
24:00 Crescat Capital
26:08 Weekly specials

Tavi Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

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