Maggie Lake Talking Markets, Released on Released on 3/28/25

We’re wrapping up the week on Talking Markets with Tavi Costa, macro strategist at Crescat Capital. Tavi will be chatting with Maggie about the roll-over he’s starting to see in junk bonds (and why it matters), and why he thinks “a blow out in credit spreads remains one of the most underappreciated risks in the market today.” Also up for discussion: Tavi’s outlook on metals, Brazil, Europe, interest rates, and Europe.

00:00 – Introduction with Tavi Costa
01:10 – What Story Is the Bond Market Telling Us?
04:15 – The Key Drivers Behind Market Volatility
09:45 – Is the Economy Heading for a Recession?
14:30 – Miners and Brazil: Investing Outside the U.S.
20:10 – The Risks of Investing in Hard Assets
23:10 – Junk Bonds: Opportunity or Trap?
26:10 – The Fed’s Push to Prove Its Independence
27:10 – Gold’s Bull Run: Is There More to Come?
32:10 – Strategic Dollar Devaluation or Something Else?

Tavi Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.