Palisades Gold Radio, Released on 4/24/25

Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, to discuss the current state of gold, silver, mining stocks, and broader economic trends. Costa emphasizes that despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions in gold, the underlying macroeconomic factors point to continued strength in precious metals. He highlights the role of central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Russia, and Turkey, which have been significant buyers of gold. Costa argues that gold’s revaluation is driven by global debt imbalances, de-globalization trends, and countries seeking to stabilize their monetary systems. He also explains how higher gold prices can increase the U.S. Treasury’s cash reserves, enabling buybacks of Treasuries without quantitative easing, which he believes will be a critical tool for managing debt. Costa is bullish on mining stocks, noting they are historically undervalued relative to U.S. equities and have outperformed over the past decade. He suggests that as global infrastructure needs grow and supply chains shift, mining companies will play a crucial role in meeting demand for essential commodities. Additionally, he points out the attractive valuations of silver, given its high gold-to-silver ratio, which he believes could lead to significant price appreciation. The discussion also touches on the U.S. dollar’s structural downtrend, driven by high debt levels and interest payment burdens, and how this impacts emerging markets positively. Costa predicts that lower yields on short-term Treasuries will benefit miners and other sectors. He concludes by advocating for increased exposure to energy stocks due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.

0:00 – Introductions
0:38 – Technical Bear Signals?
5:54 – Monetizing U.S. Assets
11:08 – Gold Re-Valuation Chart
15:00 – Tariffs & Fed Policy
20:08 – Dollar Struct Downtrend
26:10 – Mining Stock Value
31:30 – A Correction Coming?
35:33 – GS Ratio Imbalances
40:09 – Gaining Metal Exposure
43:43 – Education & Sentiment
47:00 – Mkt. Rotation & Wrap Up

Tavi Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

  gold, investing, precious metals