The Deep Dive, Released on 3/20/23

The Daily Dive opens this week with regular guest Tavi Costa, Partner & Portfolio Manager for Crescat Capital. Tavi joins us today to give us his insights on the Fed and inflation, diving into the Fed’s balance sheet holdings versus the bond market’s performance, and the impact of US banking stress. We also talk about his read on oil prices, commodities in the Brazilian market, and the price action in gold.

00:00 Introduction
00:24 Silicon Valley Bank impact
04:46 The Fed’s balance sheet holdings vs bond market performance
11:43 Inflation — monthly change in 1-year expectations
16:51 25-year record for free-cash-flow loss of the top 10 largest US stocks
21:15 Are oil prices going higher?
24:42 US 10-year yield vs. WTI Oil Prices
27:43 Brazilian stocks vs commodity producers
29:50 Price action in gold

Tavi Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

  Fed, gold, inflation, investing, oil, tavi costa