ITM Trading, Released on 7/15/24

“We’re close to a major domino falling in the next six to nine months,” predicted Tavi Costa, macro strategist at Crescat Capital. He explains to Daniela Cambone that the equity markets are likely to be the next to feel the economic repercussions driven by the higher cost of capital, which will impact the valuation of companies. “Ultimately, I would say that we’re going back to a world where investors pay closer attention to profitability,” he stresses. Costa also remains firm on his recession outlook. “You can plug in so many charts—yield curve versus unemployment rates, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims. You can see that clearly, the steepening of the yield curve from inverted levels is a very negative signal for the economy,” he explains. Watch the compelling video to learn more about Costa’s views on the economy.

00:00 Inflation
5:37 Fed rate cuts
7:49 Debt
10:38 Economic outlook
13:01 Dollar devaluation
17:13 S&P 500
19:53 Domino fall
22:01 Gold
24:38 Junior miners/gold
29:39 Silver
31:59 Concluding words

Tavi Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

  dollar, economy, gold, investing, tavi costa