DoubleLine Capital, Released on 1/20/25 (Recorded on 1/9/25)

During the macroeconomic segment of Round Table Prime’s 2025 edition, participants, among other issues, deliberate the future path of inflation, premature Trump administration assumptions at the Federal Reserve, the hidden but deepening distress of the U.S. consumer, the transformational unknowns of artificial intelligence and an awakening among Americans to their political class having abandoned them. Coming together for Round Table Prime are DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and moderator DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman with their “returning champions” James Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research; Danielle DiMartino Booth, Founder and Strategist of Quill Intelligence; Charles Payne, CEO-Founder of Wall Street Strategies and Fox Business Anchor; and David Rosenberg, Founder and President of economic consultancy Rosenberg Research & Associates. Round Table Prime 2025 was held Jan. 9 at DoubleLine’s downtown L.A. office.

Topics include:

(1:29) James Bianco’s outlook for an environment of higher structural inflation of 3% to 4%, a secular change from 40 years of disinflation that means “a 4% or 5% interest rate world being fairly normal.”

(3:58) Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in Jeffrey Gundlach’s view, is back to “oversteering,” as evidenced in “probably his worst press conference ever” on Dec. 18. due to his hyper focus on short-term inflation prints.”

(6:14) The Fed’s dilemma, Mr. Gundlach summarizes: unemployment, above-target inflation and only one policy tool to implement the Fed’s dual mandate. “Jay Powell now has one foot on the dock and one foot in the canoe. And you know what happens when they drift apart. You’re going to get wet.”

(9:56) A resumption in disinflation, David Rosenberg forecasts, is in the cards for 2025, notwithstanding the bottoming out of recent inflation prints. Service prices have been “the frustrating piece of this pie,” and are set to ease thanks to disinflation in housing and auto insurance premiums. Other disinflationary factors are tame commodities, “China exporting its deflation to the rest of the world” and the “productivity game changer” of artificial intelligence.

(18:36) In Powell’s Dec. 18 news conference, Danielle DiMartino Booth spots a major shift in the Fed’s focus: “Super core inflation’s out the window. What Powell is focused on right now is market-based core PCE.”

(27:37) The inflationary/disinflationary impact of deportation of illegal immigrants and layoffs of federal workers under President-elect Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

(29:24) The prospect of artificial intelligence, as Charles Payne notes, rendering hundreds of millions of jobs obsolete. AI means a “productivity miracle” but also the end of “60% of today’s jobs. In “the gulf between here and there, what do human beings do? That’s what Andrew Wang ran on, right? Universal basic income.”

(35:42) In the wake of his statements on Panama, Canada and Greenland, how to interpret the President-elect’s rhetoric. “Trump speaks in metaphors,” Jeffrey Gundlach says. “Panama is probably a 10. As for a Greenland, we’ve been here before. Immense tariffs on Denmark? I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

(38:15) An awakening among Americans to the idea that the political class has abandoned them.

Jeffrey Gundlach is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital. He is recognized as an expert in bond and fixed income investments. His investment strategies have been featured in leading publications from around the world In 2013, he was named “Money Manager of the Year” by Institutional Investor. He is a graduate of Dartmouth College summa cum laude holding a BA in Mathematics and Philosophy. He attended Yale University as a PhD candidate in Mathematics.

David Rosenberg is the chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates, an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to starting his firm, he was Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist & strategist. Mr. Rosenberg was also chief North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto, he was a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia. Mr. Rosenberg previously ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for seven straight years, was on the US Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for four years, and was ranked second overall in the 2008 survey.

Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).

Danielle DiMartino Booth spent nine years as an advisor to Richard W. Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Danielle left the Fed in 2015 to found Money Strong, LLC, an economic consulting firm and launched a weekly economic newsletter She is the author of Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and Credit Suisse, where she worked fixed income and the public and private equity markets. Danielle earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

  charles payne, david rosenberg, economy, investing, Jeffrey Gundlach, Jim Bianco