Luke Gromen: Global Macro, Recession and Bitcoin in 2025

Preston Pysh, Released on 1/1/25

Luke Gromen unpacks the dynamics of stablecoins and T-bills, Bitcoin’s role as a fiscal policy marker, and the implications of yield curve control. We delve into U.S. dollar devaluation, global liquidity in 2025, and the interplay of tariff threats and international Bitcoin reserves.

00:00:00 – Intro
00:00:42 – Why total federal receipts over 18% of GDP have historically led to recessions; Luke’s argument for early U.S. dollar devaluation to manage debt-to-GDP ratios
00:11:42 – The connection between stablecoins and T-bill demand and its influence on Bitcoin adoption.
00:12:55 – Luke’s strategic approach to advising the U.S. government on managing deficits.
00:24:10 – How the Bank of England’s yield curve control impacts Bitcoin’s bullish potential.
00:27:01 – Luke’s perspective on global liquidity trends for 2025.
00:27:38 – The role of Bitcoin as a marker of U.S. fiscal policy failures.
00:31:36 – How tariff negotiations could push nations to adopt Bitcoin reserves; Developments in China, Canada, and France, and their potential effects on global finance.
00:52:31 – Steps for transitioning to a Bitcoin standard in global credit systems.

Luke Gromen is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003. Luke provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives and is the founder of The Forest For The Trees, LLC, a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals.

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