Real Vision, Released on 12/31/24

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, sits down with Ash Bennington to tie a bow on 2024’s market dynamics and discuss what’s to come in 2025. Jim explains how the tug-of-war between Fed interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations are influencing price action across bond markets, equities, and even crypto.

Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
00:43 – Welcoming Jim Bianco and Intro to Market Themes
01:25 – The U.S. Economy vs. Global Performance
02:36 – Historic Performance: S&P, Gold, and Crypto
03:13 – Inflation Expectations and the Market’s Tug-of-War
03:46 – Understanding the Fed’s “Hawkish Cut”
05:28 – The Fed’s Policy Misjudgment and Market Reactions
06:41 – Political Influences on Fed Decisions
07:45 – Fed’s Mixed Signals and Inflation Forecasts
09:28 – Bond Market Reaction: Why Yields Are Rising
10:36 – The Fed’s Policy Mechanisms and Current Challenges
12:15 – Bond Market’s Critical Role in Driving Costs
14:05 – The Bond Market as the “Destroyer of Worlds”
15:07 – Concentration Risk in U.S. Equities
18:23 – Break-Even Inflation Rates and Market Signals
20:18 – Rising Inflation Expectations: What It Means
22:31 – Stock Market Returns vs. Gloom and Doom Narratives
23:29 – Market Breadth and Divergences in Performance
25:22 – Concentrated Gains and Risks of the “Magnificent Seven”
26:02 – Momentum Investing: Risks and Challenges
27:47 – Valuation Expectations and Long-Term Returns
29:40 – Bond Market Competitiveness vs. Stock Valuations
31:19 – Sequential Market Declines: What It Really Means
33:43 – Nvidia’s Role in Portfolio Performance
36:14 – Lessons from Amazon and AI Valuations
39:10 – Schiller’s CAPE Ratio and Future Market Expectations
42:14 – High Interest Rates and Their Impact on Valuations
45:33 – Crypto’s Potential: Development vs. Speculation
50:05 – Institutional vs. Retail Investment Mindsets
52:58 – Crypto Adoption: Development Wave Needed
57:12 – Jim’s 75/25 Bullish vs. Skeptical Stance on Crypto
1:02:40 – 2025 U.S. Equity Market Outlook: Higher but Struggles Ahead
1:04:06 – Closing Thoughts and Event Announcement

Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).

  Crypto, economy, Fed, inflation, investing, Jim Bianco, markets, stocks