Forward Guidance, Released on 6/4/25

In this episode, Jim Bianco Jim Bianco returns to break down why the post-COVID economy has completely broken old models, how soft data continues to mislead markets, and why 5% yields are now the new normal. He explains why everyone got April wrong, what the return of bond vigilantes means for fiscal policy, and how the Fed is out of step with reality. They also dive into Trump’s tariff strategy, the collapse of DOGE, the global shift toward bill issuance, and more. Enjoy!

00:00 Introduction
01:26 People Just Don’t Get it
04:44 The Narrative Market
12:36 Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Milk Road)
14:54 Trump Goals vs Reality
21:01 Tariffs or Capital Controls?
27:10 What is the Role of Monetary Policy?
32:43 Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)
35:05 Rate Cuts vs Hikes
42:22 Who’s Buying Bonds?
50:46 The Short Duration Shift
54:59 Gold & Bitcoin
57:44 US vs RoW Assets

Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).

  bitcoin, economy, gold, investing, Jim Bianco, tariffs