Is A Severe Global Recession Coming? —with Tavi Costa

The Deep Dive, Released on 10/10/22

Returning to The Daily Dive is Tavi Costa, Partner & Portfolio Manager for Crescat Capital. Tavi joins us today to discuss his outlook on the capital markets in the midst of recession risks, and he also takes us through what the charts are telling us that the Fed Reserve isn’t (at least not yet). Also discussed are Tavi’s insights on resources, silver, and gold.

00:00 Introduction
00:29 The Credit Suisse event, interest rates, and global liquidity
02:55 The Pound, BOE’s moves
06:02 Impact of the OPEC production cut on the oil markets
08:25 Chart: Capex Cycle Adjusted for GDP
11:44 Chart: US Job Openings
14:21 Approaching the risks of a recession
16:47 ‘Silver’s overdue!’
19:02 What’s next for gold and the precious metals market
22:46 The next bull run in gold will be triggered by a global recession

Tavi Costa is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

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