Unchained, Released on 10/15/24

In this episode, we sit down with Luke Gromen to unpack the U.S. fiscal landscape, exploring the growing strain of true interest expense and why the world may be entering a liquidity acceleration phase. Luke highlights some of the most crowded and least crowded trades in the market today and explains why gold miners are taking on a new role, while commodity stocks resemble bonds. We also discuss the potential release valves of gold, oil, and bitcoin. Luke provides insights into the shifting dynamics of physical versus paper assets, the repricing of bonds and hard assets, and bitcoin’s potential place in central bank reserves. Additionally, we cover China’s latest economic moves, the ongoing global debt bubble, and the potential impact of the U.S. Presidential election.

00:00 – Intro
01:06 – The U.S. fiscal situation and ‘true interest expense’
02:49 – U.S. fiscal tightening and liquidity needs
04:03 – ‘America doesn’t get to do collectively stupid stuff with borrowed money forever’
04:51 – What is money?
07:13 – Most crowded and least crowded trades today
08:39 – ‘Gold miners are the new commodity stocks, commodity stocks are the new bonds’
12:07 – The release valve: gold, oil, and maybe bitcoin
14:21 – Bitcoin miners as the new gold miners?
16:06 – The importance of physical versus paper assets
20:10 – The accelerating repricing event in bonds and hard assets
23:49 – How bitcoin and gold fit into the reserve asset narrative
33:14 – Will central banks eventually hold bitcoin?
35:00 – China’s aggressive stimulus and what it means for global markets
39:00 – The global sovereign debt bubble and the U.S. deficit
40:21 – U.S. Presidential election and fiscal largesse
41:59 – Repricing of gold and bitcoin
49:10 – What most bitcoiners disagree with Luke on
50:24 – The biggest risks to bitcoin and gold
55:00 – Outro and where to find more of Luke’s work

Luke Gromen is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003. Luke provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives and is the founder of The Forest For The Trees, LLC, a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals.

  bitcoin, gold, investing, luke gromen