Investor Talk, Released on 1/26/24

The stock markets are booming, the Dow Jones has reached a new record high of over 38,000 points. According to Shiller PE, shares are still heavily overvalued, but the extreme value of 1999/2000 has no longer been reached. The trend is downwards. The falling Fed balance sheet has not yet had any negative effects. The high financial requirements of the US government, which will require the monetization of debt, also speak in favour of the Fed balance sheet rising again soon. At the same time, companies and consumers will be calling for interest rate cuts – a dilemma. Gold continues to fly under the radar and its share of financial assets remains low. Since 2000, it has outperformed fiat money in all currencies. However, investors continue to focus on the equity markets, which can be managed with fiat money. Nominally, these are at a high, but in real terms, i.e. against gold, they have been falling since 2000. Take precautions now for an emergency, because in the event of a panic it will be difficult to shift assets.

0:00 Intro
2:20 US stock markets record new highs, according to Shiller P/E ratio they are still overvalued
3:30 Overvaluation like in 1999/2000 has not been reached again
4:15 Stocks are also overpriced in relation to GDP
6:30 The declining FED balance sheet has not affected stocks so far
7:00 Another rise in the FED balance sheet is inevitable
8:15 US debt is almost impossible to sell abroad
9:15 Interest rates will rise while consumers and businesses need lower rates
11:00 Gold has outperformed all major currencies since 2000
12:00 The gold share of financial assets is low, high demand cannot be met!
12:45 The Dow has been falling against gold for over 20 years (Dow-Gold ratio)
14:00 The Dow-to-gold ratio should reach 1 or less, i.e. real equity losses of up to 90%
16:00 Now is the time to take precautions, not later in the panic
17:00 The economic crisis will also hit China hard
18:30 Nobody knows when the crisis will hit, so set the course in good time

Egon von Greyerz is founder and Managing Partner of Von Greyerz (formerly Matterhorn Asset Management AG & GoldSwitzerland). Since the 1990s Egon von Greyerz has been actively involved with financial investment activities including mergers and acquisitions and asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. This led to the creation of Matterhorn Asset Management, an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles. MAM is part of the Aquila Group, Switzerland’s largest independent asset management group. Von Greyerz makes regular media appearances on CNBC, BBC, etc. and publishes articles on the world economy and wealth preservation.

  gold, inflation