David Stockman On The Impossibility Of A Soft Landing

david_stockman_2David Stockman, David Stockman’s Contra Corner, 4/20/16

While the robo-traders play tag with the chart points, it is worth considering how it will all end. After all, at today’s close the broad market (S&P 500) was valued at 24.3X LTM earnings per share. That is, valuations are in the nosebleed section of history, but financial history has tumbled into the sub-basement of future possibilities.

Stated differently, every first year spread-sheet jockey knows that what drives LBO models and NPV calculations is the assumed terminal year growth rate. Get imaginative enough about the possibilities out there, and you can come up with a swell return on today’s investment even if the next few years look a little rocky—-or even alot so.

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David Stockman is a former Republican congressman from Michigan and was President Reagan’s budget director from 1981 to 1985. After leaving the White House, Stockman became a managing director at Salomon Brothers, and he later founded a private equity fund. David is the founder of David Stockman’s Contra Corner, and he is the author, most recently, of The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America.

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