The Julia La Roche Show, Released on 4/22/25

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 250 where she reiterates her view that the US is already in recession, explains the “collapse in confidence” spreading through markets, and evaluates the growing tension between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Booth reveals concerning trends in consumer credit, employment data, and housing that mainstream statistics aren’t capturing.

00:00 – Introduction
03:31 – Discussion on US exceptionalism and capital migration out of US dollar assets
06:50 – Exploring the implications of collapsing confidence
08:35 – Trump’s Truth Social post about Powell and interest rates
11:59 – Federal Reserve’s independence and potential rate cut decisions
15:20 – Discussion on whether rate cuts are necessary and timing
16:02 – Explanation of Fed blackout period and limitations on communication
17:59 – Analysis of Trump’s strategy regarding Fed commentary
19:17 – Consumer
22:20 – CEO confidence decline, reduced capital expenditures, and potential layoffs
23:47 – Discussion on high unemployment claim rejection rates (44%)
25:19 – Effects on gig economy and discretionary spending like rideshare services
27:03 – Confirmation that we are in a recession
31:34 – Housing market assessment and discussion of market conditions
34:05 – Housing price outlook and structural issues
36:00 – Closing thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. She spent nine years as an advisor to Richard W. Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Danielle left the Fed in 2015 to found Money Strong, LLC, an economic consulting firm and launched a weekly economic newsletter She is the author of Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette and Credit Suisse, where she worked fixed income and the public and private equity markets. Danielle earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.