Brent Johnson: U.S Dollar’s Role In The Fourth Turning

Blockworks Macro, Released on 12/28/22

On today’s episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Brent Johnson CEO of Santiago Capital for a discussion on the macro forces driving markets in 2022 and what to expect heading into 2023. The story of 2022 was the U.S Dollar says Brent, long known for his “Dollar milkshake theory”. With the Dollar surging all throughout 2022, Brent walks through the effect it had on other markets from bonds, equities and Gold. Warning of the bear market rallies of 2022, Brent remains cautious on risk assets heading into 2023 as the Fed continues tightening financial conditions. Finally, Brent shares his outlook for 2023 where he expects more volatility, uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Sharing his view through the lens of The Fourth Turning, Brent highlights the most important factors to pay attention to in 2023 and beyond, but to hear that, you’ll have to tune in!

00:00 Introduction
01:16 The Macro Story of 2022
03:55 The Fed Will Continue Raising Rates Into 2023
06:33 Did The Fed Loose Credibility In 2022?
11:08 Everybody’s Looking At The Fed, What About Other Central Banks?
16:01 What Is Happening With The BoJ?
26:15 We Are In The Heart of Triffin’s Dilemma
32:29 The Fourth Turning
40:50 Brent’s Big Calls For 2023

Brent Johnson is the CEO of Santiago Capital

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