Blockworks Macro, Released on 8/8/24 (Recorded on 8/2/24)

This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday’s sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday’s steep decline. But Brent doesn’t really care about being “right” he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it’s a very small percentage and he recommends using this “cheap hedge” (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains not a bull on Treasuries (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is).

00:00 Introduction
01:34 Brent’s Market Views
06:56 Brent’s Dollar View
13:44 VanEck Ad
14:26 Interview Continues
17:57 Potential For A “Fiscal Doom Loop”
19:41 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn’t Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
20:20 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn’t Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
26:07 Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way
36:46 Permissionless Ad
37:53 Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market
43:19 Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze
48:37 Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar
01:02:00 Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports?
01:04:51 Michael Pettis’ Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large
01:13:03 Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization?
01:16:17 Brent’s Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn’t Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession

Brent Johnson is the CEO of Santiago Capital. Brent brings twenty five years of experience in the financial markets to his position as CEO of Santiago Capital where he manages the portfolios of high net worth individuals and families via separate accounts and private funds. Brent worked more than nine years as a Managing Director at BakerAvenue, a $2 Billion Asset Manager and Wealth Management firm. Before joining BakerAvenue, Brent spent nine years at Credit Suisse in their private client group. He joined Credit Suisse in the fall of 2000. Earlier in his career, Brent was a financial auditor for Philip Morris Management Company in New York City.

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