Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money, Released on 5/15/25

It’s said that the “Trump put” on financial markets is not on the S&P in this second term, but rather on the 10year US Treasury yield. The rise in Treasury yields since 2022 has sent the cost of servicing America’s federal debt to record highs, exceeding spending on national defense for fiscal year 2024. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated his and the President’s desire to get the 10year yield comfortably under 4%….but that’s proving difficult. In fact, after falling to 4.1% two week ago, the yield has quickly shot back up to near 4.5% as of the day of this recording. Why is it proving so tricky to tame bond yields? And what will it mean for the economy & markets if they can’t be? For answers, we have the great fortune today of turning to veteran money manager Bill Fleckenstein and founder of Fleckenstein capital.

0:00 – Macro sea change concerns
9:08 – National debt as existential issue
14:47 – Scott Bessent’s strategy
19:51 – Bond market risks rising
23:13 – Low confidence in the Administration’s growth plan
27:42 – Bill’s investment approach
38:10 – Pure Cycle Technologies
40:05 – Passive capital flows dominance
45:57 – Capex freeze lag effect
51:23 – Bond market breaking point
58:52 – No macro bullishness
1:00:58 – Gold’s eastern-driven rally
1:06:05 – Resources to follow Fleckenstein
1:12:50 – New Harbor Financial discussion
1:15:06 – Bond curve steepening concerns
1:23:05 – S&P bullish breakout
1:26:36 – Gold’s ongoing rally
1:37:16 – April surplus update
1:38:42 – Navigating schizophrenic markets

Bill Fleckenstein is the President of Fleckenstein Capital and writes the daily Market Rap column for his website: Fleckenstein Capital. Bill has appeared at one time or another in virtually all financial media including Bloomberg, CNBC, The New York Times, MSN, Marketwatch, Barron’s and more. Bill is a highly sought after speaker, successful author of Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve and has been in the financial sector for decades.

Adam Taggart is the Founder of  Thoughtful Money. He is also Co-Founder and former President of Peak Prosperity. Adam is an experienced Silicon Valley internet executive and Stanford MBA. Prior to partnering with Chris Martenson (Adam was General Manager of our earlier site, ChrisMartenson.com), he was a Vice President at Yahoo!, a company he served for nine years. Before that, he did the ‘startup thing’ (mySimon.com, sold to CNET in 2001). As a fresh-faced graduate from Brown University in the early 1990s, Adam got a first-hand look at all that was broken with Wall Street as an investment banking analyst for Merrill Lynch. Most importantly, he’s a devoted husband and dad.

  bond market, economy, gold, interest rates, investing