The Julia La Roche Show, Released on 10/25/24

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 205 to discuss the macro view, why the market is signaling the Fed’s rate cut was a mistake, the dynamics of the labor market, and the presidential election.

00:00 Intro and welcome Jim
01:00 Analysis of Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut and market reaction
04:27 Discussion of labor market and population growth impact
06:53 Analysis of ADP data and small business employment
09:11 Impact of immigration on economic statistics
11:20 Fed’s political vs partisan nature in rate decisions
14:13 Explanation of “no landing” economic scenario
17:06 Outlook for bonds and inflation impact
19:59 Stock market return expectations
22:25 Bond market competition with stocks
23:33 Demographics and bear market discussion
26:28 Analysis of election betting markets and probabilities
31:41 Inflation outlook regardless of election outcome
33:04 Discussion of inflation rates vs cumulative price increases
37:11 Implications of a 3% inflation world
40:48 Closing remarks and information about Bianco Research

Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).

  bond market, economy, election, inflation, interest rates, investing, Jim Bianco, stock market