The Julia La Roche Show, Released on 10/17/24

In episode 203, David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joined Julia to discuss the current economic landscape and his outlook for the future.

00:23 Introduction and overview of current economic situation
01:03 Discussion on GDP growth and survey data divergence
02:57 Analysis of the Fed’s Beige Book and economic indicators
05:19 Impact of government spending on GDP numbers
08:18 Discussion on fiscal policy and upcoming election
10:49 Analysis of government employment data and labor market
13:31 Long-term effects of fiscal policy
15:15 Lack of capital spending cycle and global economic slowdown
17:37 Diffusion analysis of the US economy
19:54 Potential fiscal policy changes after the election
21:10 Discussion on potential recession and historical comparisons
25:15 Analysis of interest rates and debt service costs
27:43 Lags in economic policy effects
31:35 Job report revisions and data reliability issues
35:43 Stock market valuation and earnings growth
39:21 Risks in current stock market valuations
42:26 Discussion on portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation
46:40 Concerns about passive index investing
50:01 Potential impact of stock market decline on the economy
54:15 Investment strategy and portfolio allocation
57:22 Approach to investing in bonds
01:00:45 Total return expectations for bonds
01:02:27 Parting thoughts

David Rosenberg is the chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates, an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to starting his firm, he was Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist & strategist. Mr. Rosenberg was also chief North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York and prior thereto, he was a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns and Bank of Nova Scotia. Mr. Rosenberg previously ranked first in economics in the Brendan Wood International Survey for Canada for seven straight years, was on the US Institutional Investor All American All Star Team for four years, and was ranked second overall in the 2008 survey.

  david rosenberg, economy, investing, stock market bubble, stocks